Demographic patterns in Lyme borreliosis seasonality over 25 years.

Lyme borreliosis, the most common vector-borne disease in Europe and North America, is attracting growing concern due to its expanding geographic range. The growth in incidence and geographic spread is largely attributed to climate and land-use changes that support the tick vector and thereby increase disease risk. Despite a wide range of symptoms displayed by Lyme borreliosis patients, the demographic patterns in clinical manifestations and seasonal case timing have not been thoroughly investigated and may result from differences in exposure, immunity and pathogenesis. We analysed 25 years of surveillance data from Norway, supplemented by population demography data, using a Bayesian modelling framework. The analyses aimed to detect differences in case seasonality and clinical manifestations of Lyme borreliosis across age and sex differentiated patient groups. The results showed a bimodal pattern of incidence over age, where children (0-9 years) had the highest incidence, young adults (20-29 years) had low incidence and older adults had a second incidence peak in the ages 70-79 years. Youth (0-19 years) presented with a higher proportion of neuroborreliosis cases and a lower proportion of arthritic manifestations compared to adults (20+ years). Adult males had a higher overall incidence than adult females and a higher proportion of arthritis cases. The seasonal timing of Lyme borreliosis consistently occurred around 4.4 weeks earlier in youth compared to adults, regardless of clinical manifestation. All demographic groups exhibited a shift towards an earlier seasonal timing over the 25-year study period, which appeared unrelated to changes in population demographics. However, the disproportionate incidence of Lyme borreliosis in seniors requires increased public awareness and knowledge about this high-risk group as the population continues to age concurrently with disease emergence. Our findings highlight the importance of considering patient demographics when analysing the emergence and seasonal patterns of vector-borne diseases using long-term surveillance data.

First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.

The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe.

Climate change has had a major impact on seasonal weather patterns, resulting in marked phenological changes in a wide range of taxa. However, empirical studies of how changes in seasonality impact the emergence and seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases have been limited. Lyme borreliosis, a bacterial infection spread by hard-bodied ticks, is the most common vector-borne disease in the northern hemisphere and has been rapidly increasing in both incidence and geographical distribution in many regions of Europe and North America. By analysis of long-term surveillance data (1995-2019) from across Norway (latitude 57°58'-71°08' N), we demonstrate a marked change in the within-year timing of Lyme borreliosis cases accompanying an increase in the annual number of cases. The seasonal peak in cases is now six weeks earlier than 25 years ago, exceeding seasonal shifts in plant phenology and previous model predictions. The seasonal shift occurred predominantly in the first 10 years of the study period. The concurrent upsurgence in case number and shift in case timing indicate a major change in the Lyme borreliosis disease system over recent decades. This study highlights the potential for climate change to shape the seasonal dynamics of vector-borne disease systems.

Outdoor recreation, tick borne encephalitis incidence and seasonality in Finland, Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/2021).

During the pandemic outdoor activities were encouraged to mitigate transmission risk while providing safe spaces for social interactions. Human behaviour, which may favour or disfavour, contact rates between questing ticks and humans, is a key factor impacting tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence. We analyzed annual and weekly TBE cases in Finland, Norway and Sweden from 2010 to 2021 to assess trend, seasonality, and discuss changes in human tick exposure imposed by COVID-19. We compared the pre-pandemic incidence (2010-2019) with the pandemic incidence (2020-2021) by fitting a generalized linear model (GLM) to incidence data. Pre-pandemic incidence was 1.0, 0.29 and 2.8 for Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively, compared to incidence of 2.2, 1.0 and 3.9 during the pandemic years. However, there was an increasing trend for all countries across the whole study period. Therefore, we predicted the number of cases in 2020/2021 based on a model fitted to the annual cases in 2010-2019. The incidences during the pandemic were 1.3 times higher for Finland, 1.7 times higher for Norway and no difference for Sweden. When social restrictions were enforced to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 there were profound changes in outdoor recreational behavior. Future consideration of public health interventions that promote outdoor activities may increase exposure to vector-borne diseases.

Simulation and identification of foodborne outbreaks in a large supermarket consumer purchase dataset.

Foodborne outbreaks represent a significant public health burden. Outbreak investigations are often challenging and time-consuming, and most outbreak vehicles remain unidentified. The development of alternative investigative strategies is therefore needed. Automated analysis of Consumer Purchase Data (CPD) gathered by retailers represents one such alternative strategy. CPD-aided investigations do not require trawling questionnaires to create a hypothesis and can provide analytical measures of association by direct data analysis. Here, we used anonymized CPD from 920,384 customers enrolled in Norway's largest supermarket loyalty program to simulate foodborne outbreaks across a range of different parameters and scenarios. We then applied a logistic regression model to calculate an odds ratio for each of the different possible food vehicles. By this method, we were able to identify outbreak vehicles with a 90% accuracy within a median of 6 recorded case-patients. The outbreak vehicle identification rate declined significantly when using data from only one of two retailers involved in a simulated outbreak. Performance was also reduced in simulations that restricted analysis from product ID to the product group levels accessible by trawling questionnaires. Our results show that-assuming agreements are in place with major retailers-CPD collection and analysis can solve foodborne outbreaks originating from supermarkets both more rapidly and accurately than than questionnaire-based methods and might provide a significant enhancement to current outbreak investigation methods.

A common framework for using and reporting consumer purchase data (CPD) in foodborne outbreak investigations in Europe.

Consumer purchase data (CPD) can be a powerful tool in the investigation of foodborne outbreaks through analyses of electronic records of food that individuals buy. The objective of this study was to develop a common framework for use of CPD in foodborne outbreak investigations using the expertise of European public health professionals from 11 European countries. We also aimed to describe barriers and limitations preventing CPD utilization. CPD are mainly gathered from supermarket loyalty programmes, smaller consortia, and independent supermarkets. Privacy legislation governing CPD was perceived as the most crucial barrier for CPD usage, but still resolvable. The main practical challenges were obtaining consumer consent for CPD usage, the associated workload, data access, format, and analysis. Harmonising methods and reporting across countries, standardised consent forms and electronic consent methods were identified as solutions. This guideline was developed to support outbreak investigators in overcoming barriers in using CPD, thereby increasing public health professionals' application and value of this powerful investigation tool. In addition, we hope this framework will lead to more public health institutions, in collaboration with food safety authorities, making use of CPD in outbreak investigations in the future.

Covid-19 transmission in fitness centers in Norway - a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Closed fitness centers during the Covid-19 pandemic may negatively impact health and wellbeing. We assessed whether training at fitness centers increases the risk of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection. METHODS: In a two-group parallel randomized controlled trial, fitness center members aged 18 to 64 without Covid-19-relevant comorbidities, were randomized to access to training at a fitness center or no-access. Fitness centers applied physical distancing (1 m for floor exercise, 2 m for high-intensity classes) and enhanced hand and surface hygiene. Primary outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 RNA status by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) after 14 days, hospital admission after 21 days. The secondary endpoint was SARS-CoV-2 antibody status after 1 month. RESULTS: 3764 individuals were randomized; 1896 to the training arm and 1868 to the no-training arm. In the training arm, 81.8% trained at least once, and 38.5% trained ≥six times. Of 3016 individuals who returned the SARS-CoV-2 RNA tests (80.5%), there was one positive test in the training arm, and none in the no-training arm (risk difference 0.053%; 95% CI - 0.050 to 0.156%; p = 0.32). Eleven individuals in the training arm (0.8% of tested) and 27 in the no-training arm (2.4% of tested) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (risk difference - 0.87%; 95%CI - 1.52% to - 0.23%; p = 0.001). No outpatient visits or hospital admissions due to Covid-19 occurred in either arm. CONCLUSION: Provided good hygiene and physical distancing measures and low population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, there was no increased infection risk of SARS-CoV-2 in fitness centers in Oslo, Norway for individuals without Covid-19-relevant comorbidities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was prospectively registered in ClinicalTrials.gov on May 13, 2020. Due to administrative issues it was first posted on the register website on May 29, 2020: NCT04406909 .

A one health glossary to support communication and information exchange between the human health, animal health and food safety sectors.

Collaboration across sectors, disciplines and countries is a key concept to achieve the overarching One Health (OH) objective for better human, animal and environmental health. Differences in terminology and interpretation of terms are still a significant hurdle for cross-sectoral information exchange and collaboration within the area of OH including One Health Surveillance (OHS). The development of the here described glossary is a collaborative effort of three projects funded within the One Health European Joint Programme (OHEJP). We describe the infrastructure of the OHEJP Glossary, as well as the methodology to create such a cross-sectoral web resource in a collaborative manner. The new OHEJP Glossary allows OH actors to identify terms with different or shared interpretation across sectors. Being aware of such differences in terminology will help overcome communication hurdles in the future and consequently support collaboration and a more inclusive development of OHS. The OHEJP Glossary was implemented as a web-based, user-friendly and searchable infrastructure that complies with the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable (FAIR) data principles. Maintenance, enrichment and quality control of the OHEJP Glossary is supported through a flexible and updatable curation infrastructure. This increases the uptake potential and exploitation of the OHEJP Glossary by other OH initiatives or tools and services.

Risk assessment of parasites in Norwegian drinking water: opportunities and challenges.

Despite the relative prosperity of Scandinavian countries, contamination of the drinking water supply with parasites has occurred on various occasions in the last few decades. These events have resulted in outbreaks of disease involving several thousand cases and/or the necessity for implementation of boil-water advisories. Against this background, in 2008, and again in 2019, the Norwegian Food Safety Authority requested a risk assessment from an independent scientific body regarding parasites in Norwegian drinking water. On each occasion, it was requested that specific questions were addressed. For the first assessment, data, both of general relevance and specific for Norway, were collected from appropriate sources, as available. Based on some of this information, a quantitative probability model was established and run to estimate the number of cases of waterborne cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis that may be expected in Norway, both in the general public and the immunocompromised, and under conditions where water treatment should be optimal, and also when water treatment efficacy may be compromised by weather conditions. For the second assessment, approximately a decade after the first, an update on the previous assessment was requested. Differences in information availability and other changes between the two assessments were described; although more data were available at the second assessment, considerable gaps still remained. For both assessments, data on the occurrence of these parasites in the Norwegian population, particularly those infected in Norway, were considered a challenge. However, due to changes in reporting requirements in 2020, the situation was improved for the second assessment. In addition, data were lacking for both assessments on whether animals or humans are most likely to contaminate water sources, and the species and genotypes of these parasites in Norwegian animals. It was also noted that some of the newer data on parasite numbers detected in water samples should be treated with caution. Due to this, further modelling was not conducted. The relevance of risk-based sampling rather than ad hoc sampling of water sources was also addressed. Despite the data gaps, this article provides an overview of the opportunities provided by conducting such assessments. In addition, some of the challenges encountered in attempting to estimate the risk posed from parasite contamination of water sources in Norway, particularly under predicted conditions of climate change, are described.

Spatial tick bite exposure and associated risk factors in Scandinavia.

Tick-borne diseases are emerging and re-emerging threats causing public health concerns in Europe and North America. Prevention and control requires understanding of human exposure and behaviour. The aim was to measure exposure to tick bites across Scandinavia, its spatial distribution and the associated risk factors. Methods We sent a web-based survey to a randomly chosen population and analysed answers by Principal Component Analysis and Chi-Square. Individual responses were aggregated at the municipality level to assess the spatial distribution of bites. Results Nearly 60% of adults reported bites at low levels (1-5 bites); however, the majority were not in their resident municipality. We found two spatial profiles: In their home municipalities, people were most often bitten in less, but not the least, urbanized areas. When visiting other municipalities, people were most frequently bitten in peri-urban areas. Running/walking in the forest, gardening, and paddling/rowing were activities most strongly associated with bites. Conclusion Tick bites affect the entire Scandinavian population, with a higher risk in Sweden compared to Denmark and Norway. The frequency of observation of ticks in the environment or on pets might be used as a proxy for the actual risk of exposure to tick bites. Our results indicates that urban-dwelling outdoor enthusiasts and inhabitants of rural areas must be equally targeted for prevention campaigns.

A Mini-Review of Ixodes Ticks Climate Sensitive Infection Dispersion Risk in the Nordic Region.

Climate change in the Nordic countries is projected to lead to both wetter and warmer seasons. This, in combination with associated vegetation changes and increased animal migration, increases the potential incidence of tick-borne diseases (TBD) where already occurring, and emergence in new places. At the same time, vegetation and animal management influence tick habitat and transmission risks. In this paper, we review the literature on Ixodes ricinus, the primary vector for TBD. Current and projected distribution changes and associated disease transmission risks are related to climate constraints and climate change, and this risk is discussed in the specific context of reindeer management. Our results indicate that climatic limitations for vectors and hosts, and environmental and societal/institutional conditions will have a significant role in determining the spreading of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) under a changing climate. Management emerges as an important regulatory "tool" for tick and/or risk for disease transfer. In particular, shrub encroachment, and pasture and animal management, are important. The results underscore the need to take a seasonal view of TBD risks, such as (1) grazing and migratory (host) animal presence, (2) tick (vector) activity, (3) climate and vegetation, and (4) land and animal management, which all have seasonal cycles that may or may not coincide with different consequences of climate change on CSI migration. We conclude that risk management must be coordinated across the regions, and with other land-use management plans related to climate mitigation or food production to understand and address the changes in CSI risks.

Infection prevention guidelines and considerations for paediatric risk groups when reopening primary schools during COVID-19 pandemic, Norway, April 2020.

In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries implemented school closures. In Norway, schools closed on 13 March 2020. The evidence of effect on disease transmission was limited, while negative consequences were evident. Before reopening, risk-assessment for paediatric risk groups was performed, concluding that most children can attend school with few conditions requiring preventative homeschooling. We here present infection prevention and control guidelines for primary schools and recommendations for paediatric risk groups.

Who is afraid of ticks and tick-borne diseases? Results from a cross-sectional survey in Scandinavia.

BACKGROUND: In Scandinavia, the distribution of ticks is expanding and tick-borne diseases constitute growing health risks. While the probability of getting a tick-borne disease after a tick bite is low, the health impacts can be large. This, as well as other characteristics of these diseases make tick-related risks difficult for laypeople to assess and perceived risk may differ substantially from actual risk. Understanding risk perceptions is important since it is the perceived risk, rather than actual risk, that determine behaviour and even more so for new and emerging risks. The aim of this study is to investigate knowledge and risk perceptions related to tick bites and the tick-borne diseases Lyme borreliosis (LB) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE). By analysing risk perceptions and knowledge, the study helps inform the development of public health strategies in response to the increasing incidence of these diseases in Scandinavia. METHODS: Two thousand, six hundred sixty-eight respondents in Denmark, Norway and Sweden answered an online questionnaire with 48 questions, including 7 questions on risk perceptions and 9 knowledge questions. Chi-squared tests were used to analyse statistical differences between country sub-samples, gender and age groups. A multivariate regression model was used to analyse factors associated with risk perceptions. RESULTS: Risk perceptions were on average high in comparison with scientific estimates, with respondents grossly overrating the probability of contracting LB or TBE if bitten by a tick. Also, the average perceived seriousness of a single tick bite and of getting LB or TBE was high. Knowledge on the other hand was low, especially among men and the youngest age group (18-29 years). Higher levels of knowledge about tick-borne diseases were associated with lower perceived seriousness of tick bites and LB and higher perceived seriousness of TBE. Also, having been diagnosed with LB was negatively associated with the perceived seriousness of LB. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that informing about ticks and tick-borne diseases would be a relevant public health strategy as it could make risk perceptions better aligned with actual risk. Should the TBE virus spread further in Denmark and Norway, increasing knowledge about TBE vaccination would be especially important.

Protective practices against tick bites in Denmark, Norway and Sweden: a questionnaire-based study.

BACKGROUND: Tick-borne infections are of emerging and increasing concern in the Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Only few studies have investigated protective practices against tick bites in the general population. The aim of this multi-country study was to assess the use of protective practices and the perception of the efficacy of them. METHODS: We surveyed the extent of using protective practices against tick bites, using the same questionnaire in three local languages. In addition, we surveyed perceptions of how good a protection the different practices provide. Altogether 783 individuals from Denmark, 789 from Norway and 1096 from Sweden participated in the study by completing an extensive online questionnaire in October 2016. RESULTS: Altogether 1011 respondents (37.9%) reported using at least three different protective practices either often or always when in areas where there are ticks, while 522 (19.6%) reported using none. Female gender was among the factors identified as positively associated with using several of the specific practices often or always when in areas where there are ticks. The gender-difference in extent of using protective practices against tick bites was particularly pronounced in Sweden. Based on a multivariable logistic regression model, being female, being from Sweden, and having experienced one or more tick bites were positively associated with using at least three different protective practices against tick bites either often or always when in areas where there are ticks (odds ratios 1.90, 1.87 and 1.88, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study, especially the observed differences by country and by gender, can be useful in targeting future information to the public. In particular, our results suggest that men across all ages should be considered a specific target group for this information.

Lyme neuroborreliosis and bird populations in northern Europe.

Many vector-borne diseases are transmitted through complex pathogen-vector-host networks, which makes it challenging to identify the role of specific host groups in disease emergence. Lyme borreliosis in humans is now the most common vector-borne zoonosis in the Northern Hemisphere. The disease is caused by multiple genospecies of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato bacteria transmitted by ixodid (hard) ticks, and the major host groups transmit Borrelia genospecies with different pathogenicity, causing variable clinical symptoms in humans. The health impact of a given host group is a function of the number of ticks it infects as well as the pathogenicity of the genospecies it carries. Borrelia afzelii, with mainly small mammals as reservoirs, is the most common pathogen causing Lyme borreliosis, and it is often responsible for the largest proportion of infected host-seeking tick nymphs in Europe. The bird-borne Borrelia garinii, though less prevalent in nymphal ticks, is more likely to cause Lyme neuroborreliosis, but whether B. garinii causes disseminated disease more frequently has not been documented. Based on extensive data of annual disease incidence across Norway from 1995 to 2017, we show here that 69% of disseminated Lyme borreliosis cases were neuroborreliosis, which is three times higher than predicted from the infection prevalence of B. garinii in host-seeking ticks (21%). The population estimate of migratory birds, mainly of thrushes, explained part of the annual variation in cases of neuroborreliosis, with a one-year time lag. We highlight the important role of the genospecies' pathogenicity and the host associations for understanding the epidemiology of disseminated Lyme borreliosis.

Livestock-Associated MRSA CC1 in Norway; Introduction to Pig Farms, Zoonotic Transmission, and Eradication.

Farm animals have been identified as an emerging reservoir for transmission of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) to humans. The low incidence of MRSA in humans and farm animals in Norway has led to the implementation of a national strategy of surveillance and control of LA-MRSA aiming to prevent livestock becoming a domestic source of MRSA to humans. In 2015, MRSA clonal complex 1 spa-type t177 was identified in nine Norwegian pig herds in two neighboring counties. An outbreak investigation was undertaken, and measures of control through eradication were imposed. We performed a register-based cohort study including pig herds and MRSA-positive persons in Norway between 2008 and 2016 to investigate the livestock-association of MRSA CC1, the transmission of the outbreak strain to humans before and after control measures, and the effect of control measures imposed. Data from the Norwegian Surveillance System of Communicable Diseases were merged with data collected through outbreak investigations for LA-MRSA, the National Registry and the Norwegian Register for Health Personnel. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on isolates from livestock and humans identified through contact tracing, in addition to t177 and t127 isolates diagnosed in persons in the same counties. It is likely that a farm worker introduced MRSA CC1 to a sow farm, and further transmission to eight fattening pig farms through trade of live pigs confirmed the potential for livestock association of this MRSA type. The outbreak strain formed a distinct phylogenetic cluster which in addition to the pig farms included one sheep herd and five exposed persons. None of the investigated isolates from possible cases without direct contact to the MRSA positive farms were phylogenetically related to the outbreak strain. Moreover, isolates of t177 or t127 from healthcare and community-acquired cases were not closely related to the outbreak cluster. Eradication measures imposed were effective in eliminating MRSA t177 from the positive pig holdings, and the outbreak strain was not detected in the national pig population or in persons from these counties after control measures.

Tick abundance, pathogen prevalence, and disease incidence in two contrasting regions at the northern distribution range of Europe.

BACKGROUND: Emergence of tick-borne diseases is impacting humans and livestock across the Northern Hemisphere. There are, however, large regional variations in number of cases of tick-borne diseases. Some areas have surprisingly few cases of disease compared to other regions. The aim here is to provide a first step towards a better understanding of such contrasting regional patterns of disease emergences at the northern distribution range of Ixodes ricinus in Europe. METHODS: We compare disease incidence, vector abundance and pathogen prevalence in eastern and western Norway differing in the number of tick-borne disease cases. First, we analysed the incidence of Lyme borreliosis in humans, tick-borne fever (anaplasmosis) in sheep and anaplasmosis and babesiosis in cattle to verify if incidence differed. Secondly, we analysed extensive field data on questing tick density, pathogen prevalence, as well as the broad spatial pattern of human and livestock distribution as it may relate to tick exposure. RESULTS: The incidences of all diseases were lower in eastern, compared to western, Norway, but this was most marked for the livestock diseases. While the prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu lato) in ticks was similar in the two regions, the prevalence of Anaplasma phagocytophilum was markedly lower in eastern, compared to western, Norway. We found overall a lower abundance of questing nymphs in the east. In the east, there were cases of babesiosis in cattle where anaplasmosis was absent, suggesting absence of the pathogen rather than differences in exposure to ticks as part of the explanation for the much lower incidence of anaplasmosis in eastern Norway. CONCLUSIONS: Many factors contribute to different disease incidence across ecosystems. We found that regional variation in tick-borne disease incidence may be partly linked to vector abundance and pathogen prevalence, but differently for human and livestock diseases. Further studies are needed to determine if there is also regional variation in specific genospecies and strain frequencies differing in pathogenicity.

Emergence of tick-borne diseases at northern latitudes in Europe: a comparative approach.

The factors that drive the emergence of vector-borne diseases are difficult to identify due to the complexity of the pathogen-vector-host triad. We used a novel comparative approach to analyse four long-term datasets (1995-2015) on the incidence of tick-borne diseases in humans and livestock (Lyme disease, anaplasmosis and babesiosis) over a geographic area that covered the whole of Norway. This approach allowed us to separate general (shared vector) and specific (pathogen reservoir host) limiting factors of tick-borne diseases, as well as the role of exposure (shared and non-shared pathogens in different hosts). We found broadly similar patterns of emergence across the four tick-borne diseases. Following initial increases during the first decade of the time series, the numbers of cases peaked at slightly different years and then stabilized or declined in the most recent years. Contrasting spatial patterns of disease incidence were consistent with exposure to ticks being an important factor influencing disease incidence in livestock. Uncertainty regarding the reservoir host(s) of the pathogens causing anaplasmosis and babesiosis prevented a firm conclusion regarding the role of the reservoir host-pathogen distribution. Our study shows that the emergence of tick-borne diseases at northern latitudes is linked to the shared tick vector and that variation in host-pathogen distribution and exposure causes considerable variation in emergence.

Climate and environmental change drives Ixodes ricinus geographical expansion at the northern range margin.

BACKGROUND: Global environmental change is causing spatial and temporal shifts in the distribution of species and the associated diseases of humans, domesticated animals and wildlife. In the on-going debate on the influence of climate change on vectors and vector-borne diseases, there is a lack of a comprehensive interdisciplinary multi-factorial approach utilizing high quality spatial and temporal data. METHODS: We explored biotic and abiotic factors associated with the latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in the distribution of Ixodes ricinus observed during the last three decades in Norway using antibodies against Anaplasma phagocytophilum in sheep as indicators for tick presence. Samples obtained from 2963 sheep from 90 farms in 3 ecologically different districts during 1978 - 2008 were analysed. We modelled the presence of antibodies against A. phagocytophilum to climatic-, environmental and demographic variables, and abundance of wild cervids and domestic animals, using mixed effect logistic regressions. RESULTS: Significant predictors were large diurnal fluctuations in ground surface temperature, spring precipitation, duration of snow cover, abundance of red deer and farm animals and bush encroachment/ecotones. The length of the growth season, mean temperature and the abundance of roe deer were not significant in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the need to consider climatic variables year-round to disentangle important seasonal variation, climatic threshold changes, climate variability and to consider the broader environmental change, including abiotic and biotic factors. The results offer novel insight in how tick and tick-borne disease distribution might be modified by future climate and environmental change.

Prevalence of tick borne encephalitis virus in tick nymphs in relation to climatic factors on the southern coast of Norway.

BACKGROUND: Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is among the most important vector borne diseases of humans in Europe and is currently identified as a major health problem in many countries. TBE endemic zones have expanded over the past two decades, as well as the number of reported cases within endemic areas. Multiple factors are ascribed for the increased incidence of TBE, including climatic change. The number of TBE cases has also increased in Norway over the past decade, and the human cases cluster along the southern coast of Norway. In Norway the distribution and prevalence of TBE virus (TBEV) in tick populations is largely unknown. The objectives of this study were to estimate the TBEV prevalence in Ixodes ricinus from seven locations and to assess the relationship between the TBEV prevalence and site-specific climatic variables. METHODS: A total of 5630 questing nymphs were collected and analyzed in pools of ten. All pools were screened with an in-house real-time RT-PCR, and the positive pools were pyrosequenced. Two methods, minimum infection rate (MIR) and a frequentist method (EPP) for pooled prevalence estimations were calculated and compared. Climatic data were descriptively compared to the corresponding EPP of each location in order to explain variations in TBEV prevalence. RESULTS: The seven foci of TBEV had an estimated overall prevalence (EPP) in pools of nymphs combined, of 0.53% with 95% CI (0.35-0.75), with point prevalence ranging between 0.11%-1.22%. The sites with the highest point prevalences were within the municipalities which had the highest numbers of registered TBE cases. The results indicate that the location with highest point prevalence had the highest relative mean humidity and lowest mean saturation deficit and vice versa for the lowest EPP. CONCLUSION: Our study confirms the existence of TBEV endemic foci in Norway. These results are of importance to increase the awareness of TBEV infections in Norway and could be used for public information and recommendations of TBE vaccination. EPP is the method of choice for pooled prevalence calculations, since it provides estimated prevalences with confidence intervals. Our findings emphasise the possible importance of microclimatic conditions regarding the TBEV prevalence in ticks.